Bundesliga preview: Is it Legacy Leverkusen or Back-to-Bayern?

Meine Damen und Herren, the Bundesliga is gearing up for another thrilling season! The action kicks off on August 23rd, with 18 teams vying for the prestigious trophy. Bayer Leverkusen are the defending champions, but they face a tough challenge, as only Bayern Munich has managed to win back-to-back titles this century.

Who’s the favorite?

Leverkusen’s performance last year – remaining undefeated in the league and winning the double – was absolutely astonishing. The big question now is whether Xabi Alonso’s Invincibles were a one-off, or if the Spaniard is starting a new era in the Bundesliga.

Leverkusen have managed to retain key players like Alejandro Grimaldo and Florian Wirtz and their only notable departure is right-back Josip Stanišić, who was on loan from Bayern. The recent Supercup final also showed that the team is still in top form, triumphing over Stuttgart on penalties despite being a man down for nearly an hour.

However the biggest win for the reigning champions was keeping their 42-year-old talismanic coach Xabi Alonso, who turned down offers from Liverpool and Bayern to make history (again) in Leverkusen.

When it comes to their rivals, Bayern Munich stands out. They were left trophyless last season for the first time since 2011/12 and the culprit-coach Thomas Tuchel is now gone, replaced by Vincent Kompany.

Although the former Manchester City and Belgium defender doesn’t have a stellar coaching track record – he did get Burnley relegated last season – it’s his style and ideas that impressed Bayern’s management.

The German powerhouse also invested heavily over the summer, acquiring center-back Hiroki Ito from Stuttgart, defensive midfielder João Palhinha from Fulham and right winger Michael Olise from Crystal Palace for a total of €127.5 million.

With goal-scoring machine Harry Kane, who netted 36 times in his debut season in Germany, Bayern looks formidable. After all, they only lost the title last year due to Leverkusen’s phenomenal unbeaten season, even though they themselves accumulated more points than the year before when they were crowned champions.

The third so-called favorite is last year’s Champions League runner-up Borussia Dortmund. Despite their European success, they only finished fifth in the Bundesliga, leading to tensions in the locker room and the dismissal of head coach Edin Terzić.

Club legend Nuri Şahin has taken his place. With veterans Marco Reus and Mats Hummels gone, it would be a great story if Şahin could bring success back to BVB, having won the title as a player under Jürgen Klopp in 2010/11.

Dortmund did however lost striker Niclas Füllkrug over the summer but brought in Maximilian Breier and Serhou Guirassy from Hoffenheim and Stuttgart, respectively, to replace him. In defense, new addition Waldemar Anton is expected to keep things in order.

Who’s the dark horse?

Moving on, Stuttgart, the 2006/07 champion, will be lurking behind the “big three.” Last year, they managed to beat both Dortmund and Bayern but lost key players over the summer: Ito, Anton and Guirassy.

While Deniz Undav (from Brighton) and Ermedin Demirović (from Augsburg) might fill Guirassy’s shoes, the defense remains a slight concern here.

Last year’s fourth-placed team, RB Leipzig, will be happy to have extended Xavi Simons’s loan from PSG. However, star player Dani Olmo left to join FC Barcelona, leaving a significant hole in their offense. Closing out games was an issue last season, with Leipzig winning only 19 out of 34 matches.

As these five teams were so far ahead of the rest last season, it’s hard to identify another dark horse challenging for Champions League places – Germany currently has five spots. However, if a club is needed, look no further than Eintracht Frankfurt, who bolstered their sixth-place side with striker Hugo Ekitike from PSG.

Who will be relegated?

When it comes to relegation, almost anything is possible. Last season, 11th place Augsburg finished just six points ahead of the relegation playoffs, meaning them and the others who followed – Wolfsburg, Mainz, Borussia Mönchengladbach, Union Berlin and Bochum, who successfully battled Fortuna Düsseldorf in the relegation playoffs – will be fighting to stay up.

New contenders are Bundesliga 2 champions St. Pauli, back after a 13-year hiatus, and Holstein Kiel, who last played in Germany’s top division 60 years ago.

St. Pauli’s triumphant-coach Fabian Hürzeler has since moved to Brighton & Hove Albion, but the club believes they have found the best replacement in Alexander Blessin, Belgium league coach of the season last year who guided Union SG to a surprise cup win.

In terms of players, St. Pauli primarily relied on loan deals, bringing in right winger Morgan Guilavogui from Lens and midfielder Robert Wagner from Freiburg. Right-back Fin Stevens is their biggest purchase so far (€600k from Brentford), raising questions about whether it will be enough.

Kiel, on the other hand, used an interesting approach, drawing players from Russia to Europe: midfielders Armin Gigović and Magnus Knudsen are those who fled Rostov. Kiel’s biggest departure is midfielder Philipp Sander, who made 26 appearances last season, so in theory they should have things covered. It just remains to be seen if the reinforcements will be enough to stay up.